Balancing the Scales: Why European Road Freight Rates Depend on Direction

Deep dive into reasons for persistent rate imbalances

A-B ≠ B-A is the only formula needed to describe persistent structural rate imbalances in Europe. They exist and can not be avoided, but smart players leverage those discrepancies to gain market advantage.

I. Introduction

The journey of a truck across Europe, laden with goods destined to factories or retailers, might appear straightforward. Key inputs for analysis typically include distance, fuel consumption and time. Yet, beneath this apparent simplicity lies a complex economic reality, where the rates often vary significantly depending on the direction of travel, the time of the year, specific equipment and process requirements. This phenomenon, known as structural rate imbalance, is not merely a fleeting quirk of the logistics market, but a persistent feature reflecting Europe´s distinct trade flows, industrial specializations and geographical constraints. It reveals underlying asymmetries in the European economic engine, where the cost of transport from A to B frequently differs from the return trip.

Rate imbalance is shaped by market forces which rarely align perfectly in both directions for any given route. The tension between the physical symmetry of a round trip and the economic asymmetry of directional demand creates this discrepancy.

While fundamental costs like fuel, tolls, driver wages and equipment depreciation establish a baseline, the actual rate is dynamically determined by the current balance between the supply of available truck capacity and the demand for transport services. When demand outstrips supply in a specific location or a specific lane, rates can climb significantly above costs as a result of competition for available trucks and smaller chances to secure load on the way back. Conversely, when trucks are plentiful and loads are scarce, rates may fall below the carrier's operating cost.

II. The Seeds of Imbalance

The origins of structural rate imbalance are in the continent's physical and economic geography. Europe is far from a homogenous market. Extensive coastlines, mountain ranges and the distances between major economic hubs shape transport efficiency and costs. Furthermore, economic activity is unevenly distributed. A concentration of industrial production and consumption exists in core areas — such as the densely populated and industrialized corridor often named the "Blue Banana," stretching from Southeast England through the BeNeLux countries, Western Germany, Switzerland, and into Northern Italy – contrasting with regions of lower economic density. This geographical reality inherently creates directional biases in freight flows. Transport demand tends to gravitate towards major population and consumption centers, as raw materials or components might originate in peripheral areas and move towards central processing or manufacturing hubs.

Layered upon this geographic foundation is the crucial factor of industrial specialization. Different nations and regions within Europe have developed distinct economic strengths. Germany's powerhouse manufacturing sector, the agricultural output of Spain, France, and Poland, the high-tech industries of Scandinavia, the fashion and automotive expertise of Italy, or the UK's reliance on imported consumer goods all dictate the type and direction of freight movements. A region primarily exporting heavy, bulky manufactured goods might import lighter, higher-volume consumer products. An industry with significant processing depth warrants higher volume of raw materials than the volume of goods produced. Such mismatches often mean trucks delivering goods in one direction struggle to find equally valuable or voluminous freight for the return journey —the perennial challenge of securing profitable backhauls. National trade surpluses and deficits often reflect these underlying specializations and contribute to the directional flow of laden vehicles.

Geographic centrality, while positioning countries like Germany at the crossroads of European trade, does not eliminate imbalances. Instead, it can amplify them on specific lanes radiating outwards, as the nature of inbound versus outbound freight, dictated by Germany's role as both a major exporter and importer, creates directional price differentials. The constant drive for logistical efficiency, particularly the minimization of costly empty miles clashes here with the fundamental realities of specialized economies and trade patterns.

III. Regional Specifics

Examining specific regions and trade lanes brings the abstract concept of imbalance into sharper focus. The percentage figures cited below represent the typical discount of the cheaper leg compared to the more expensive leg on a given country-pair route. These values are derived from an analysis of average rates for 2024 sourced from Transporeon data.

Poland

While serving as a major logistics powerhouse and source of transport capacity for the continent, Poland also exports manufactured goods, components, furniture, and food products westward. Poland is the home base for many trucking companies and has a strong westbound flow of goods. This frequently leaves trucks hopelessly searching for return loads from Western Europe to Poland and translates into tangible price differences: sending a full truck from Germany to Poland now typically costs 28% less than the return journey from Poland back to Germany. Similarly, France to Poland is 35% cheaper than the return, and the BeNeLux-Poland route is 30% cheaper on average. This universal pattern of cheaper inbound rates to Poland extends to many other lanes as well, with extremes reaching 58% in Poland-Sweden and Poland-Romania pairs, where finding a backload is the hardest task.