European Transport Capacity Adapts to New Market Conditions

Market Monday - Week 16 - Seasonal Decrease in Capacity Falls Below 2023 Levels

The past few weeks showed the expected seasonal decreases in European transport capacity. However, there are noticeable differences when compared to 2023. Given as Easter occurred earlier in 2024 compared to 2023, this shift needs to be considered in our comparison. In the chart below, the shift in time is highlighted and the difference illustrated in red. The data suggests a lower capacity situation (around 5 index points) compared to similar time in 2023. Although we haven’t observed significant demand increases, we can already see changes in capacity in 2024.

Evolution of European Transport Capacity Index

Source: Transporeon Market Insights, Market Radar 

This trend is due to slight increases in transportation demand and probable changes in the available carrier fleet. After over a year of economic downturn, particularly in Europe and its largest market, Germany, carriers have likely reacted to relatively low transport prices, rising production costs, and the driver shortage by gradually reducing their fleet.

We anticipate an additional week of increased capacity before the market shifts again. This is because of operational discrepancies and inefficiencies associated with numerous public holidays. This will most likely lead to further capacity reduction, bringing the levels close to those seen in May 2019.

Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst