Heavy Truck Registrations Drop in Q3 2024: Economic Shifts and Fleet Reductions in Focus
Market Monday - Week 47 - Registration figures demonstrate awaited downturn
The anticipated reduction in new heavy truck registrations materialized in the third quarter of 2024, marking the end of an era of consistently high registration figures. This downturn comes two years after a shift in the overall economic climate. The extended timeframe can be attributed to a record backlog of orders following the COVID-19 pandemic and a general increase in registrations ahead of significant regulatory or technological changes, as observed in the past.
The following map illustrates the change in registrations from the first three quarters of 2023 to the first three quarters of 2024. An overall decrease in registrations is evident, with Central and Northeastern European countries experiencing the most significant drops.
Heavy truck registrations first 3 quarters of 2024 compared to 2023
Source: ACEA
Hover over or click on the map to review and explore country-specific values.
The Baltics, Poland, Sweden, Germany, Benelux, Czechia, and Slovakia all experienced double-digit declines in registrations in 2024 compared to 2023. However, some countries, including Spain, Ireland, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, and Romania, reported higher figures than last year.
Examining the isolated Q3 figures reveals a sharp decrease compared to previous years and quarters. The following chart highlights the change from Q2 to Q3, with Denmark showing the most significant reduction.
Heavy truck registrations quarter-to-quarter change
Source: ACEA
As is often the case, exceptions prove the rule — three countries deviate from the overall trend. However, when looking at the aggregated figures below the map, only Ireland remains an exception on the growing side, with registrations above 2023 and Q2 2024 levels. Lithuania's and Luxembourg's increases in Q2 do not alter the overall picture for 2024.
For the coming quarter, we can expect further drops in heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) registrations, especially for diesel engine trucks, as Q4 typically sees lower figures than other quarters. Although Q4 2023 values were already low, a further reduction in registrations is likely, potentially painting the map above in more yellowish tones. It will be interesting to see if Italy, Austria, and Romania can maintain their year-over-year increases or if they will also end 2024 with decreases.
Alternative engine registrations are likely to continue increasing, despite the slowdown in Q3. Battery electric vehicles' (BEV) current overall registration share for Europe remains limited at 1.3%, although they saw a 38.2% increase in registrations compared to the first three quarters of 2023, representing a 0.2 percentage point improvement from the previous quarter.
What does this mean for the industry and market dynamics?
The high additions to the fleet ceased in Q3, bringing the uncertain reductions in fleet size and carrier bankruptcies to the forefront. Reliable de-registration figures are not available, and some press releases and financial statements mention fleet decreases and driver shortages. If these trends continue, combined with the new reality of low truck additions, we can expect a further shortfall in the available fleet and market capacity.
Without any changes in demand dynamics, this is already a strong indicator of future price increases. In the short term, the spot market is about to experience this new situation during the year's end peak season in the coming weeks.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Transporeon