Heavy Truck Registrations Drop Sharply in Central and Northeastern Europe in 2024
Market Monday - Week 7 - Q4 registration figures reveal market downturn and unexpected surprises
Heavy truck registrations fell sharply in Q3 2024, exceeding our expectations for decline. Unsurprisingly, we awaited the Q4 registration figures summarizing 2024 with keen interest. Truck registrations are an important indicator of available transport capacity. Key questions upfront the new release remain: Will the drop from last quarter reverse or intensify? And will 2024`s figures fall significantly below 2023´s levels? These questions are vital for understanding both our industry´s current state and future market trends.
The following map illustrates how heavy truck registrations changed from 2023 to 2024, highlighting the steepest declines in Central and Northeastern Europe.
Hover or click the map to review and explore country-specific values.
Most Central and Eastern European nations saw registrations drop by more than 10% in 2024, including the Baltics, Poland, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and Portugal. However, some countries like Greece, Spain, Ireland and Switzerland sustained this trend with increased registrations. The Netherlands showed particularly interesting results - shifting from a 10% decline in our previous report to a 10% increase, driven by fourth quarter registrations that almost doubled across both diesel and alternative fuel trucks.
What are the industry and market implications?
Three months ago we expected a further drop in registration for the last quarter of the year, but Q4 performed strongly compared to Q3 of 2024. Considering that Q4 2024 showed additional decreases to Q4 of 2023 I still think that this doesn't mark a change of trend towards increasing fleet additions compared to the recent level, but it stabilizes the current situation and therefore may also have a positive effect on the available capacity for the months to come.
Reliable de-registration figures are not available but press releases and financial statements still continue to highlight fleet reductions and again worsening driver shortages. These factors, combined with cautious investment spending as presented, suggest ongoing constraints in fleet availability and market capacity.
Without any changes in demand dynamics, these market dynamics paint a clear picture for 2025: While we're currently experiencing a seasonal softening in spot rates and some pressure on contracted rates, this temporary relief will likely be short-lived. The combination of reduced fleet registrations, ongoing driver shortages, and approaching peak seasons (Easter weeks and public holidays) signals a fundamental shift. We anticipate significant capacity constraints and substantial spot price increases, particularly in western Europe for May and June. Forward-thinking shippers should prepare for this market evolution by securing capacity early and developing robust contingency plans.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Transporeon