Intermodal Transport: Beyond the Decline Narrative

Data shows strategic growth despite market challenges

In recent months, numerous reports have highlighted a concerning trend: intermodal transport is downsizing while road transport is regaining market share. Swiss authorities have noted a 1.7 percentage point decline in intermodal transit across the Alps through Switzerland in 2024 compared to 2023. Similarly, the UIRR reported a 10.57% reduction in consignments transported in 2023 compared to 2022 among its members. Kombiverkehr, primarily active in Germany and a UIRR member, experienced a 15.88% decrease in shipments in 2023.

These figures paint a stark picture of intermodal transport's decline, raising concerns about the implications for road capacity and overall sustainability if this trend continues.

While acknowledging the challenges faced by carriers and intermodal operators over the past two years—marked by decreasing volumes, rising costs, and stagnant or declining market prices—I find it difficult to accept this shift as a widespread market movement. Two key questions emerge: Can we demonstrate that part of this downturn may be attributed to alternative solutions not captured in these figures? And is this downturn affecting the entire market, or are certain clusters more impacted than others?

Guided by these questions, I conducted a detailed analysis of available data to verify if the reported downturn trend holds true. We examined over 60 shippers' networks, representing several million annual transports, and compared their intermodal usage trends over the past three years.

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The results are surprising, given the initial statements and prevailing market sentiment. According to this data sample, intermodal transport increased its share from 5.6% in 2022 to 7.4% in 2024 within FTL networks. While this data includes short sea volumes, which may not directly reflect pure rail usage. Nonetheless, these figures challenge the general assertion that intermodal transport is in decline.

In the following segments and analyses, we will explore the data to understand these differences and identify segments, shipper clusters, and corridors in Europe that excel and drive this development. We will conclude with an outlook on the potential fit for intermodal usage within remaining road volumes and where the share could stand. This outlook result will cover infrastructure availability, volume attractiveness, and competitive market pricing.