Is the European Football Championship affecting German Road Transportation?
Market Monday - Week 25 - Spot market in Germany follows typical trends.
Over the past few weeks, I received questions about the potential effects of the European Football Championship in Germany on its domestic road transportation. Now that the first games have been played, it's a good time to assess if the preparations, anticipated consumption increase, and increased security levels have visibly affected the transportation market. The spot prices and their key influencing factors (offers for spot request and rejections of a contracted attempt) should be the first to react. In the following graphic, I have highlighted these KPIs and their trends over the recent weeks. For comparison, I’ve included the 2023 trendline to identify differences, if any.
Key spot market performance indicator: Germany domestic
Source: Transporeon Market Insights, own visualization
All three 2024 metrics show a similar week-to-week trend as their 2023 counterparts, however the KPIs elevations differ. Additionally also the number of spot requests did not change significantly and showed for week 23 increases and in week 24 decreases compared to 2023. Based on all road transportation traffic on the Transporeon platform and this analysis, we can assert that the European Championship has had no perceptible effect on the overall spot market in Germany.
However, we can identify a significant shift in the overall situation. Spot prices and rejection are clearly above last year’s levels, while spot offers recorded a lower average number in 2024.
From a supply perspective, offers and rejections therefore clearly indicate a different spot market situation than in 2023, resulting in the higher observed spot prices. We particularly notice this trend of a reduced available capacity and elevated spot prices across Western Europe.
Given these findings, I don’t expect the European Championship to significantly impact the transportation market. Reports of Danish, Scottish, or general football fans literally drying out bars and beer gardens have not led to an increased transportation demand, despite their potential for amusement.
However, I expect the spot market to behave differently during the Olympic Games in France. I expect the first effects on the transportation data and the affected markets will begin in mid-July.
So stay tuned!
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst