Market Monday: Why Polish transportation spot rates are likely to increase to 2022 levels
Week 11 - Expect an increase up to €1.30 per kilometer in the upcoming weeks
In this episode of Market Monday, I’ve analyzed the domestic transportation market in Poland. A detailed examination of the spot prices and the number of spot offers has yielded interesting insights. There's a clear inverse correlation when comparing offers on the spot market with spot prices. The more spot offers available, the lower the EUR/km value. The higher the number of spot offers, the cheaper the EUR/km value. However, if we delve deeper and compare heights of offers with heights of prices we can draw additional conclusions.
During February and beginning of March 2023, we see a peaking number of offers. This level was not reached in 2024. Simultaneously, we see spot prices decreasing due to high available capacity coupled with low demand during these periods.
Domestic spot prices and spot offers in Poland
Source: Transporeon Market Insights, own illustration
Spot prices in 2023 were lower than those in 2024, mainly due to a high available capacity on the spot market as reflected in the number of respective offers. Diesel price development also supports this assessment, since they were above current levels in 2023 and didn't start to decrease until the end of February and therefore shouldn’t be the main reason for bottomed spot rates.
Comparing offers in 2023 with those of 2024 shows a decrease, likely - once again - due to changes of the demand and supply. Factoring in the typical seasonal increase in spot rates around Easter (in 2023, they rose from low to high by 16%) and the different spot market situation in 2024, my expectation is that spot rates will hover around 2022 levels in April. Specifically, this suggests a 22% increase to 1.33 € (shown by the above red dotted line) from the lowest value in February 2024 of 1.09 €.
Our Market Insight customers can check how my expectations compare to the market evolution.
What to expect next ? I predict that spot rates in Poland will maintain this new level reached in April and we likely will head into a volatile phase around 1.25€ to 1.30€.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst