Transport Demand and Truck Activity Indicate Economic Growth in Europe
Market Monday - Week 28 - Driven Distance Market Indicator confirms upward trend
Three months ago, I shared my first analysis of the Driven Distance Market Indicator, a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) used to assess demand trends. This KPI measures the total distance a truck covers in a month compared to the average of the past 12 months. It is based on real-time visibility data, allowing me to judge market movements from a different angle than transports executed on our platform. When two different datasets confirm a potential trend towards more activity, it boosts our confidence in that trend. The following chart compares this metric over the past two years.
Driven Distance Europe
Source: Transporeon Real Time Visibility
From a methodology perspective, we can’t directly compare year-to-year values, but we can identify trends. Values above 100 indicate more distance driven in a given month compared to the past 12-month average; values below 100 indicate less. In addition, monthly values, influenced by the last 12 months, reveal trends over time. By adding data from the past two years, we can also assess the seasonality. In this context, truck activity increased in May and remained high in June despite the usual seasonal trend.
Demand data based on executed transports, the second dataset, showed a more diverse picture, with overall demand comparable to last year but with significant variations across industries. While particularly Automotive but also FMCG sectors saw decreases, Paper & Print, Chemical, Packaging and Metal & Steel sectors showed considerable increases in transportation demand.
Although latest reports suggest growth has not yet firmly manifested and good news of an indicator have been followed by a negative interpretation of the same KPI a month later.
Now, with two indicators - driven distance and transportation demand in some industries - showing consistent signs of increases compared to the same time in 2023, I am confident that we have moved past the era of declines. From a European perspective, economic growth seems likely, though not for all countries, yet.
For more information in details in demand data get Market Radar here:
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst