European Trucking Capacity: Christmas Peak Predictions
Market Monday - Week 45 - Analyzing the 2024 capacity situation and its year-end implications
Welcome to this week's Market Monday update. We've been tracking two key indicators of short-term truck capacity: contracted load rejections and spot market offers. These two metrics are our primary indicators of short-term truck capacity available in the market. Typically, rejections increase and spot market offers decrease around public holidays or seasonal events.
As we approach the year-end peak season, understanding the available capacity is crucial. It directly impacts price levels for ad-hoc transports leading up to the Christmas break. The latest update confirms again the strong reactions in these KPIs as previously measured.
It also suggests that despite slow economic recovery, overall available capacity remains tight with no signs of easing.
The shift in available capacity is evident. The chart below shows that rejections have not realigned with the situation in 2023. While spot market offers have improved, this merely reflects higher price levels compared to contracted rates - a natural response when carriers face low margins or even losses on contracted work.
Comparison of rejections and offers to 2023
Source: Transporeon Market Insights, own evaluation and illustration
Looking ahead, I expect this trend to continue. Spot offers may improve slightly to balance high spot rates. Over time, as spot prices remain elevated, spot offers will likely adjust, following the rule that high demand and prices will attract the necessary capacity.
Unfortunately for the contracted side, this spells challenges. Rejections will remain high and are likely to further increase. While early November might offer some relief, I predict a significantly tighter capacity situation during the 2024 Christmas peak compared to last year. Come December, we may see record-high rejections and challenging operational conditions in capacity provision.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst
Transporeon