European Trucking Capacity: What to Expect After Summer
Market Monday - Week 36 - the differing capacity situation compared to 2023 continues. What are the implications for the rest of the year?
In this episode of Market Monday, I’ve refreshed my analysis on the seasonal patterns of contracted load rejections (transports that are either timed out or rejected by carriers) and spot market offers. These two KPIs serve as our main indicators of short-term truck capacity available in the market. Typically, rejections increase and offers on the spot market decrease around public holidays. This time, after the summer break, these indicators diverged once again, reflecting a seasonal trend of reduced capacity and increased inefficiencies.
The latest update shows strong reactions in these KPIs, suggesting that even though economic recovery is slow, overall available capacity remains tense without any signs of easing.
The shift in available capacity is evident. The chart below shows that neither KPI has aligned again with the situation of 2023.
Comparison of rejections and offers to 2023
Source: Transporeon Market Insights, own visualization and evaluation
Looking ahead, I expect this trend of non-alignment with 2023 to persist. We might see slight improvements in offers to counterbalance the high spot rates. Over time, as spot prices remain elevated, spot offers will likely adjust, following the rule that high demand will find necessary capacity.
Unfortunately for the contracted side, this means rejections will probably stay high. Although there may be some relief towards November, I expect a tighter capacity situation during the Christmas peak in 2024 compared to last year. This is because some trucks that have served the contracted side might shift more to the spot market, chasing higher margins, and the overall lack of fleet additions.
In the midterm, we can expect higher spot market activity and evolving pressure on contracted prices. The next milestone for evaluating available capacity, particularly in relation to the Christmas peak, will be mid-November.
Christian Dolderer
Lead Research Analyst